Jackson Fish Market
Posted on April 7, 2009 by hillel on Industry

Pixar will fail (eventually).

In many ways, our aspirations for Jackson Fish Market are modeled after Pixar. Pixar isn’t the biggest in its industry, but it is among the best. It stays focused, it tries to do what it knows best, it worries primarily about creating something loved by its creators (as opposed to its demographic). Pixar also slowly evolved to its first big hit with several dry runs and consulting gigs. And in a business like movies, where hits pay for dozens of failures, Pixar’s string of success is amazing.

That said, movies are hit driven. And it seems almost impossible, or at least unlikely, that anyone, no matter how talented, can continue to bat 1.000 when it comes to making super popular large scale mass media. This is why I believe Pixar will eventually fail to create a movie that is a huge success. Some might argue they already have. While Cars was visually gorgeous and grossed over 5 billion dollars in merchandising revenue (best Pixar film ever in that regard), I’m not alone in feeling that the story was tired and predictable.

While we’re proud of our creations here at Jackson Fish Market, each of our small efforts has had it’s own level of (very) modest reaction. Some are more popular than others. And with each release we learn more about the craft of making high quality software and more about what we think customers will love. And while we are eager for masses of customers to love one (or more) of our products, I doubt even once we have a bona fide success that we’ll ever feel like we have the formula to repeat it once never mind indefinitely. And I don’t think the folks at Pixar would claim that either.

As long as management doesn’t get nutty and John Lasseter stays put, they’ll continue to make movies that they are proud of. Many, and maybe even most of those movies will be some type of significant commercial success. But some, eventually, won’t be. And that’s ok.

It feels to me like sometimes, even the folks who create products in these hit-driven businesses like to think that the formula for success is just a matter of following a simple (or even complex) formula of market research, appealing to the demographic, optimizing around trends, and merchandising.

“With “Ratatouille,” analysts fretted about whether moviegoers would go to see a movie about a rat in the kitchen. They did. With “Wall-E,” people feared the lack of dialogue would bore children. It did not.”

Even with a company like Pixar that’s been so consistent, I don’t believe anyone has the ability to pick winners. I do believe however that some people, who focus on their craft get lucky once in awhile. And in the case of Pixar, hit a perfect moment in time where the stars align, and their vision happens to be just what the public wants.

While we have yet to make our Toy Story, we’re plugging away, learning, and focusing on what we like to create. And while I have no predictive power over when, I do believe that eventually the stars will align.

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